If you believe in the Monte Carlo Fallacy, then you will be glad to hear that it was too windy to fly both days this weekend. We weren't able to fly anyway, due to the lack of a towplane. The chances of another windy weekend are reduced, right?
While doing some minor Blanik chores on Saturday, Christopher, Sonny, and Rick discovered the Blanik manual, which Christopher will copy and make available to the club. We also decided to improve the canopy seals and figure out the best way to protect the cockpit from the sun.
We ran into Andy G who is making progress on the towplane. We think we can get away with only one or two more orders to Aircraft Spruce for parts.
On Sunday, Tim and Andy decided to go to Springfield where there is a towplane and where strong winds are less of a problem. They each had a flight in PM and reported good lift (9.5 knots at one point) to 8500 feet. When the lift is that strong, the winds are less of a factor on a local flight.
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6 comments:
It's a joy to be a member of the only soaring club on the planet which will pop up in a Google search for "Monte Carlo Fallacy". Still I felt so unworthy that I dug out my old course notes on Baye's Theorem and the Gambler's Fallacy. Unfortunately, before I regained complete fluency I got confused, fell down, and couldn't get up. Guess I better stick with shuffle board.
So, "while the representativeness heuristic and other cognitive biases are the most commonly cited cause of the gambler's fallacy, research suggests that there may be a neurological component to it as well. Functional magnetic resonance imaging has revealed that, after losing a bet or gamble ("riskloss"), the frontoparietal network of the brain is activated, resulting in more risk-taking behavior. In contrast, there is decreased activity in the amygdala, caudate and ventral striatum after a riskloss. Activation in the amygdala is negatively correlated with gambler's fallacy - the more activity exhibited in the amygdala, the less likely an individual is to fall prey to the gambler's fallacy. These results suggest that gambler's fallacy relies more on the prefrontal cortex (responsible for executive, goal-directed processes) and less on the brain areas that control affective decision-making.
This indicates that judgement about the likelihood of finding your final glide thermal is best left to your flight computer.
Or you would do better after a frontal lobotomy.
JS
So Skip, does this mean that we can expect more or fewer windy weekends this year?
Is there a name for the syndrome of explaining everything within the context of one's area of expertise, to the exclusion of all other explanations?
I think what Skip is saying is that there is a 87% chance the tow plane will be ready this weekend.
There is a syndrome for everything. The one you are asking about is called "Tunnel Vision Syndrome," aka, "The Part of the Elephant" sign.
Frontal lobes are overrated.
JS
"You find what you look for and you look for what you know." --Ancient Sage
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